The Boks knocked off an injury ravaged Wallaby side with room to spare but this is different. Although now a dead rubber that’ll matter little in Soweto and SA have second place to secure. They’ll come again without their best up front and while Louw presented huge issues for Australia at the turnover ball he’ll do it harder here, any of McCaw, Read and Messam able to neutralise him. Again while Kirchner and Habana looked all pop and danger last out and their new five eight, Goosen, wont kick it away given half a gap, those will be hard to find and he’ll be taking plenty on the back foot without the armchair the Wallabies allowed. They’ll ride the crowd though and only went down late last time here in 2010. They’re 3-2 the last five hosting and might stay close for three quarters but their issue is this All Black side looks to be only hitting its straps.
The latter were challenged early by the Pumas in La Plata but when Nonu grabbed one out of the ruck and dashed clear, as he used to so often from wing, and soon after when Read hit the insides with real gas off a short ball, both plays finished by others, it looked ominous for the Pumas and so it proved. They went there with some caution but to the credit of the new coach, Hansen, they came prepared, brought a clear plan, and executed it to a ten. That meant avoiding the front wrestle where possible, keeping it alive throughout, and relentlessly asking the opponent defence at the inside channels and at the edges. There’s little doubt they were assisted by an opponent on whom the reality of weekly outings at this level caught up. Still, you’d expect a similar plan from the All Blacks except that they’ll know SA don’t bring what the Pumas have in front and they won’t be as cautious about taking it up the guts. The presence of Carter made a difference last out and he’ll find territory when necessary. If there’s a caution its that they remain able to be unsettled at times but you’d expect this high tempo power game to deliver a 16th straight and a sweep of the Rugby Championship.
New Zealand by 7

Although the Pumas collected their first hiding of the Championship, they simply met the All Blacks on what would have been the wrong day for any other rugby side. They actually had the wood up front but were denied regular use of it. This time they’ll look to keep it tighter for longer periods. They didn’t bring the urgency on defence of some of their earlier games but as in a number of leagues the effects of a rookie year kicked in; the travel, the list depth required, the intensity of weekly outings at this level, and the weight of expectation at home after several encouraging results. Can they bank all that for a first win ? Certainly this is their best shot. They’ll have targeted it from draw release, in Rosario, and as luck would have it facing what is nye on Australia B.
For all that the Wallabies haven’t been top tier for so long for no reason, albeit when they won the last here in 2002 they were World Champions. They never found any territory last out in Pretoria but when you think injuries saw them already without Pocock, Genia, and Horwill (all captains the past six months), one of the best on the planet, O’Conner, along with Kepu, Palu, Moore, Timani, Mitchell, Turner, and Cooper, you couldn’t have written the carnage that followed last week. They lost Higginbotham (back) before the off, then the following in running; Ashley-Cooper (concussion), Barnes (punctured lung), Samo (shoulder), Ioane (knee) and Polota-Nau (shoulder). Beale at 10 was probably their best in some moments but he’s not the ideal pivot, perhaps he’ll rise here. There’s no hoodoo, they’re 3-3 in Argentina, nor is there a lack of incentive, they can still pull second in the Championship by winning this if the Boks go down. Only a late rally got them past the Pumas on the Gold Coast last month and this is all uphill. Still, there’s digger in them and it’ll show.
Australia by 3